Finland, Vietnam and Covid – Science is Fallible!

Nobody saw the Delta variant coming – even the some of the world’s best scientists. Finland has seen a huge jump in infection rates that was not meant to happen! Vietnam is another example of this conundrum. 

A paper was published earlier this year in March on “Our World in Data” – this is a scientific online publication that focuses on large global problems such as poverty, disease, hunger, climate change, war, existential risks, and inequality. It is a registered charity in England and Wales, and founded by Max Roser, a social historian and development economist. The research team is based at the University of Oxford. 

“Emerging COVID-19 success story: Vietnam’s commitment to containment

As of December 31, 2020, Vietnam had reported 1,465 laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 35 deaths. This success has been attributed to several key factors, including a well-developed public health system, a decisive central government, and a proactive containment strategy based on comprehensive testing, tracing, and quarantining.

Detect: Vietnam has taken a targeted approach to testing, scaling it up in areas with community transmission. Contact tracing is comprehensive, with three degrees of contacts traced for each positive case.

Contain: As a result of its detection process, hundreds of thousands of people, including international travelers and those who had close contact with people who tested positive, were placed in quarantine centers run by the government, greatly reducing both household and community transmission. Hot spots with demonstrated community transmission, including Da Nang during its outbreak in July and August 2020, were locked down immediately, and the government communicated frequently with citizens to keep them informed and involved in the public health response.”

The FT reported today (FT 8.8.2021) that Covid-19 infections have closed many factories because Vietnam’s new cases have been between 7,000 and 8,000 each day with more that than 200,000 infections recorded since end of June.

With just 1% of the country vaccinated one can ask questions about their “well-developed public health system, a decisive central government, and a proactive containment strategy based on comprehensive testing, tracing, and quarantining.”

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